As the firedrake caput industry of Macau economic system, any downswings in the degree of activity in the touristry industry are a cause for concern. Tourism demand calculating therefore dramas an of import function in planning and pull offing the hereafter development of the Macau touristry industry.

Numerous surveies have been done to use the intercession analysis in touristry demand prediction. However, this attack has non been really much applied on Asia Pacific Region, even no in Macau. More critically, no research has of all time used Tourist Price Index ( TPI ) to analyze the intercessions occurred and to capture this constituent of irregular fluctuations in the prediction theoretical accounts.

This survey uses an intercession theoretical account to look at the impact of SARS eruption in 2003 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 on Macau touristry industry by utilizing eight TPI series. The findings of this survey will lend to Macau authorities ‘s policy devising determinations when an unexpected and sudden downswing happened in touristry demand.

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Introduction

Macau ‘s economic system has been turning quickly recent old ages thanks to the unfastened attitude of chancing grant licence policy in 2002. In add-on, Macau became the universe ‘s largest gaming centre after surpassed the bet oning grosss of Las Vegas in 2006. Meanwhile, Macau touristry industry has besides enjoyed the strong growing with entire visit reachings exceeding 28 1000000s in 2011 harmonizing to the statistics provided by DSEC.

In 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS ) outbreak hit the touristry of Asia-Pacific part. A reappraisal of recent touristry demand literatures indicates that SARS had important impacts on Taiwan touristry industry ( Min, 2005 ; Min, 2008 ) . In 2008, the worldwide industry growing hit a wall once more because of the Global Financial Crisis. Macau touristry was no exclusion. However, no literatures studied the impacts of these events on Macau touristry demand.

In order to entree whether both unexpected external happenings had impacts on Macau touristry, this paper will follow the intercession analysis introduced by Box and Tiao ( 1975 ) . In add-on, a comparative survey will be performed to analyze if the intercession theoretical account produces better prognosiss than the prediction theoretical accounts without intercession.

Objective and Contributions

The aim of this survey is to measure whether the unexpected calamities of SARS and planetary fiscal crisis had a impermanent or long term impact on Macau touristry demand. To account for these two events in Macau touristry demand theoretical account, the empirical analysis has two phases. First, an intercession analysis is performed to supply an estimated impact of these catastrophes on the touristry demand. Second, a comparative survey is conducted to entree whether intercession analysis could out-perform the prediction theoretical accounts without intercession analysis. The treatment in this survey will be based on the eight classs of tourer monetary value index.

This survey is a first effort in the touristry literature to pattern Macau touristry demand after these two crises. By analyzing the effects of these crises, it enables touristry policymakers to larn the kineticss of tourer behaviour for future negative happenings and hence to accomplish more sophisticated forward planning and touristry crisis direction system. This research will potentially profit research workers of touristry and touristry governments in Macau.

Literature Review

Many literatures have shown the successful usage of intercession analysis on survey the impact of unexpected external events on variables to be forecast. Box and Tiao ( 1975 ) examined the decrease of oxidant pollution degrees in business district Los Angeles by following two intercessions: the recreation of traffic by the gap of the Golden State Freeway and the coming into consequence of a new jurisprudence ( Rule 63 ) cut downing the allowable proportion of reactive hydrocarbons in locally sold gasolene. Since Box and Tiao foremost investigated the degree displacement in the clip series within the model of the Box-Jenkins transportation map mold, intercession analysis has been widely employed to analyse the economic or environmental impacts through policy alterations and catastrophes ( Goh and Law, 2002 ; Lai and Lu, 2005 ; Min, 2005 ; Min, 2008 ) .

Intervention analysis has besides been employed in patterning and calculating touristry demand. Goh and Law ( 2002 ) used the intercession theoretical account to entree the impact of four intercessions, relaxation of the issue of out-bound visitants ‘ visas, the Asiatic fiscal crisis, the handover of Hong Kong to China, and the bird grippe epidemic, on the demand for travel to Hong Kong. All four intercessions were through empirical observation identified with important trial consequences and expected marks. Coshall ( 2003 ) applied the intercession theoretical account to analyse the impact of three intercessions, the US bombardment of Libya in 1986, the Lockerbie air catastrophe in 1988, and the Persian Gulf crisis during 1990-1991, on the flow of U.K. air riders to a assortment of finishs. The effects of these intercessions on U.K. air travel varied in oncoming, magnitude, and continuance harmonizing to the finish involved and the province that a crisis has reached. Lai and Lu ( 2005 ) adopted clip series intercession analysis to measure the impact of the September 11, 2001 terrorist onslaught on air conveyance rider demand in the U.S. The consequence showed that the terrorist onslaught had important impermanent impact on both domestic and international air traffic. Min ( 2005 ) used a SARIMA with intercession theoretical account to analyse the impact of visitant reachings in Taiwan during and following the SARS eruption. The empirical consequences indicated that Taiwan ‘s visitant reachings were badly reduced by the SARS eruption. Min ( 2008 ) employed the intercession analysis to entree whether the 9-21 Earthquake in 1999 and the SARS eruption had a impermanent or long term impact on the Nipponese touristry demand in Taiwan. Experimental consequences showed that both catastrophes on Nipponese inward touristry presented merely impermanent consequence. In drumhead, intercession theoretical accounts generalize the univariate Box-Jenkins methodological analysis by leting the clip way of the dependant variable to be influenced by the clip way of the intercession variables ( Nelson, 2000 ) Therefore, it seems a clip series intercession analysis can be a valuable tool for measuring the impact of exceeding external events we are interested in.

Numerous surveies have besides indicated that the prediction theoretical account with intercession outperformed other normally used clip series theoretical account when important intercession in the series existed. Goh and Law ( 2002 ) proved that the hardiness of the prognosis theoretical account was enhanced by capturing intercession in the theoretical account by integrated measure and pulse map through arrested development as exogenic silent person variable ( s ) . The multiplicative ARIMA theoretical account with intercession outperformed the remainder if there was obvious intercession. Otherwise, SARIMA generated the highest anticipations. Lai and Lu ( 2005 ) compared the prognosis theoretical accounts with or without intercession consequence. The empirical scrutinies indicated that the intercession theoretical accounts are more penurious than the SARIMA and the Box and Jenkins ‘ air hose theoretical account in depicting air rider tendencies after the September terrorist onslaughts. The statistical consequences in Min ( 2008 ) besides proved that the prediction efficiency of ARIMA with intercession is superior to SARIMA without intercession in depicting the Nipponese tourer flows after the events of 9-21 Earthquake and SARS.

The above literatures have formed the footing of this survey and it is of involvement to look into whether the instance in Macau touristry is consistent with the old findings on intercession analysis in the touristry literatures.

Data and Hypotheses

Datas

Tourist Price Index ( TPI ) is defined in this survey as an economic index that reflects alterations in the monetary value degree of goods and services purchased by visitants during their stay in Macau[ 1 ]. There are eight TPI subdivisions which are Food, Alcoholic Beverages & A ; Tobacco, Clothing & A ; Footwear, Accommodation, Restaurant Services, Transport & A ; Communications, Medicine & A ; Personal Goods, Entertainment & A ; Cultural Activities, and Miscellaneous Goods. The touristry demand series adopted are quarterly TPI of all eight subdivisions for the period from Q4 2000 to Q3 2012, and this set of informations will be obtained from DESC.

Hypothesiss

Hypothesis H1: The SARS eruption in 2003 had a impermanent impact on the Macau Tourism Demand

Hypothesis H2: The SARS eruption in 2003 had a long-run impact on the Macau Tourism Demand

Hypothesis H3: The Global Financial Crisis in 2007 had a impermanent impact on the Macau Tourism Demand

Hypothesis H4: The Global Financial Crisis in 2007 had a long-run impact on the Macau Tourism Demand

Hypothesis H5: Intervention analysis of Macau Tourism Demand after the SARS eruption and Global Financial Crisis produces better prognosiss in comparing with prognosiss without intercession analysis

These five hypotheses will be tested and it is expected that both happenings will hold impacts on Macau Tourism Demand. Hence, it may back up the last hypothesis.

Methodology

This survey will follow the Box-Jenkins ( 1970 ) theoretical account and the intercession theoretical account introduced by Box and Tiao ( 1975 ) to analyze the impacts of SARS and Global Financial Crisis on Macau touristry demand clip series. All analyses will be done by IBM SPSS Statistics 20.

The information adopted in this survey will be divided into two parts. Among the 48 observations, the first 44 observations ( Q4 2000 to Q3 2011 ) will be used to develop two probationary theoretical accounts, with and without intercession analyses. These two theoretical accounts will be employed to calculate the 4 future values of Macau TPI in eight subdivisions of Q4 2011 to Q3 2012.

Pre-intervention theoretical account

The clip series will be look into for stationarity utilizing autocorrelation map ( ACF ) and augmented Dickey-Fuller trial ( ADF ) ( 1979 & A ; 1981 ) for unit roots. If the clip series nowadayss nonstationary, it will be transformed by taking appropriate differences to render the series stationary. Since touristry demand clip series frequently exhibits a seasonal periodic constituent which measures at regular calendar intervals within a twelvemonth, it is necessary to prove for the presence of seasonal unit roots.

After identified a plausible set of SARIMA theoretical accounts, Akaike information standard ( AIC ) and the Schwarz Bayesian standard ( SBC ) will be used in theoretical account choice, whereby the smaller values are preferred. After best theoretical account is selected, Ljung-Box Q Statistic and the Dubin-Watson trial will be adopted to observe the presence of autocorrelation in the remainders. The chosen theoretical account will be probably the right one if the remainders reveal approximative white noise.

Intervention theoretical account

Two events, SARS and Global Financial Crisis, are classified as two intercession variables in the selected ARIMA theoretical account. Box and Tiao ( 1975 ) considers the intercession variables as holding a pulsation or measure map. Pulse maps will be employed if the effects of an intercession are expected to be merely impermanent and decay over clip. Step maps will be employed if the effects of an intercession are expected to stay for good after clip T to some extent. In order to entree whether two intercession variables have impermanent or long term impact, both maps will be adopted in the selected ARIMA theoretical account. Ljung-Box Q Statistic and the Dubin-Watson trial will be used to analyze if autocorrelation is present.

Evaluation of two theoretical accounts

Accuracy measuring of the two attacks will be based on average absolute divergence ( MAD ) , average absolute per centum mistake ( MAPE ) , and average square mistake ( MSE ) . Smaller values are preferred. In add-on, AIC and SBC will be used to compare both theoretical accounts.

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